Paul Henderson March 26, 2020 05:19 AM 1984. The past is future. FB36 March 26, 2020 06:43 AM A wellknown phenomenon in world of medicine is that, sometimes what really kills the patient is NOT really the disease (organism) itself, but overreaction of the body to it!IMHO, current global COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic really seems to be causing overreaction & causing massive damage to whole world economy & bigger & bigger damage!IMHO, it seems a global social positive feedback effect is happening (which is the root cause):Mass media (which is always happy to try to create/push mass fear & alarming/sensational news) & social media (which is full of people who want their content read/watched/shared as much as possible) are keep amplifying the effect of each other, on the general public!Which in turn, keep pushing all governments to take more & more drastic (mandatory) measures, against the spread of the disease!& the news of each new (government) drastic measure, in turn, feeds more & more into mass media & social media to amplify excessive fear, even further!But then, what would/should be a reasonable (global) response to such a pandemic?IMHO, closing any businesses/shops (& even schools) & shutting down public transportation is excessive overreaction!We need to make sure whole world economy continues to run OK & livelihoods of any group of people are not effected badly!But, IMHO, practical measures, like social distancing (like no handshaking & working from home) & frequent washing/disinfecting (of hands & commonly used areas/objects/surfaces) & wearing masks at any crowded places, etc, could/should be (strongly) recommended (but still NOT as mandatory)! guzmanchinky March 26, 2020 08:11 AM People simply won't stand for being told to stay in their homes much longer, at least here in the US. Jerome Morley Larson Sr eAIA March 26, 2020 08:51 AM we cannot predict the future by using past technology; invention is increasing exponentially; there is an excellent chance we have already found the antidote to this virus and an inexpensive way to distribute it world-wide and surely we or AI will do it tomorrow. Since Nixon unleashed China, the world has changed from twenty percent developed (average person has discretionary income) to eighty percent developed which means that their now educated children will create inventions at four time the rate of fifty years ago — everything will change for the better; this virus is just a hiccup along the way; I predict it will be gone by June 22, 2020, my eighty-fifth birthday. paul314 March 26, 2020 09:58 AM Although less-than-70% compliance with social distancing can't eradicate the virus (at least in the model cited) it does slow the doubling time from a few days to more like a month. Which may be long enough for modern economies to start producing all the basic health-care items (masks, suits, ventilators, sanitizing solutions etc) to keep mortality rates down. The difference between 1% and 10% mortality is a pretty big deal. guzmanchinky March 26, 2020 11:02 AM How is it that Jerome, someone who is 85, understands better than most younger people that advances in technology and medicine are now arriving exponentially? He is absolutely correct, with something as world pressing as this there will be a cure and vaccine in much shorter of a time than we are accustomed to. NW March 26, 2020 01:40 PM I do largely agree with FB36.According to Public Health England, 28,000 died in the UK [or may actually just be England] of complications arising from Flu. 28,000 !!! Average from 2013 is 17,000 per annum. Where was the "Hoo Har" then? Lock downs? Media panic? No one-raised an eyebrow. Even if we say Covid-19 is a little worse, the people who died in 2018 did not die from a lesser form of death! More people will have died this year from standard flu than Covid -19. Where is the coverage of that? Same type of disease, spread the same way. Governments have had huge pressure put on them by the media. Sure we need to protect the vulnerable. Of course. Where was that concern in 2018 though? ...and every year before then? Signguy March 26, 2020 01:42 PM Jerome & guzmanchinky; for the most part I agree, science & the USA will be the "savior" of the world as most creative solutions come from us; I have a better Savior in Jesus, & when we take Him at his Word, nothing shall be any means harm us. Read Psalm 91 for instance. dr.kerrysmith March 26, 2020 03:56 PM Apparently once one has had the disease and recovered they are immune. If antibodies are present in their blood, maybe a transfusion to ailing patients could cure them. paul314 March 26, 2020 04:20 PM Just an arithmetical reminder: In a country of 330 million, if half the population gets infected and suffers an average 1% mortality rate (something only a few well-prepared countries have been able to achieve for people who fall ill with this new version of coronavirus) that would be 1.65 million deaths. That would be more than 40 times as many people as died from the flu last year. The idea of lockdowns is to prevent exponential growth with a fast doubling time.