A fascinating what if - but of course it doesn't really deal with the resolve of the two sides. The UK was fighting for its very existence, which can often make what appears militarily impossible happen.

Although its probably true to say Germany lost the WWII mainly due to Hitler's lack of logic and military knowledge (history) plus his passionate hatred of the Soviets that resulted in a massive drain on the Nazi resources and the fighting of a war on two major fronts.

Plus Japan attacking Pearl Harbour - sealed the fate of Nazi Germany as the US enter the war.

I find this offensive to the memory of those who fought and died. For once in our history we had some great leaders Churchill, Dowding and Park made it possible for the British pilots to win on the day at great cost, the Germans had idiots and fools which lost them the battle, ENd off doesn't need rehashing by children with their know it all but really know nothing BS, children should be seen and NOT heard, As I said Offended!

This is an exercise in history and war knowledge and data crunching that reminds us of our history and how difficult those challenges were at that time. I appreciate being reminded of my history as I have family on both sides. This type of study is essential to help us prevent future wars on this scale. Knowledge is a powerful tool in life. Thank you for sharing this story.

A very interesting exercise. It shows that there are many factors in any situation that can affect the outcome of any event. Although developed as a tool to look at history, perfecting this type of analysis could greatly help in determining what can happen based on what potential decisions are made. Using a very dicey even from history and knowing the factors that lead to the result seems the only way to validate the math.

I don't understand DW's offence at this exercise. It certainly does not negate the heroics and sacrifice of the many that died to save the world from the madness that was AH. Being a child of post war Netherlands born to parents who lived under the yoke of the Nazis, I can only hope that this type of research will one day help to eliminate and/or defeat future maniacs and keep future generations safe from wars.

To me this shows more about the limited value of statistical analysis of complex multivariate factor processes in analyzing the outcomes in a larger venue. There's probably (a statistical estimation) someone out there who will present a report on the number of angels dancing on the head of a pin. Some of the Luftwaffe pilots no doubt hoped for glory and acclaim and were misled; the British were fighting for survival. Nothing about the statistics even addresses the issues beneath simple skill and training in mechanics.

The question is somehow funny, as far as war can be funny, but makes little sense, if the number of victims in the bombings on Coventry didn't reach the 4 thousand, this was because it was a very strongly protected site, as it harbored a lot of War Industries, Hamburg, Dresden had not same fate.
What actually killed hebrew and other prisoners, all common criminals for the German government, was Euthanasia, as the strategic allied bombing left the system without enough food and other resources for the German population and the arrested delinquents, RAF passed an order for over 200 Wellington heavy bombers as early as June 1939. World Wars is a subject not to discuss in more than 150 years, specially by those who exerted the worse cruelty: the lands of the three psychopaths who parted the world in Yalta: Churchill, Stalin, Roosevelt. Agur.

Computer models don't have an element for this. Millions of people were scared and turned to God for help against people that thought they were gods. Divine intervention is great stuff.

An article I read, decades ago, reported that a German bomber, which had failed to find its target over a 'Blackout Britain' had dumped its bombs when returning to Germany, and without realising it, dumped them over blacked out London. Up until then, bombing cities had been off limits. An outraged Churchill immediately ordered Berlin to be bombed in retaliation, which in turn caused Hitler to have to order London to be bombed in a 'tit for tat' reaction. This then caused more retaliation from Britain, and so on. The initiative of bombing airfields to destroy the RAF was then lost, as Hitler had to then switch to bombing cities. It was also reported that the crew of the bomber was court martialed, for their incompetence. It was this ''lucky'' distraction, that gave Britain time to rebuild its airfields and aircraft numbers. It was a very close thing, as the RAF's aircraft numbers, and its ability to fight Hitlers hoards of aircraft, had dropped to very dangerous low.

Link
“For want of a nail, the shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe, the horse was lost.
For want of a horse, the rider was lost.
For want of a rider, the battle was lost.
For want of a battle, the kingdom was lost, And all for the want of a horseshoe nail

quantify that

peace

We had cracked German codes, so the present outcome was inevitable.