I think it's about the apps. I think it's possible for a Surface phone to be successful in part because they have a big developer community.
Just because it's possible doesn't mean it will happen though. If I were in their shoes though because of the late start I'm not sure if I would sit on the sidelines and wait for 3rd party developers to write all the apps people commonly use.
I think they would get a lot more traction if they created a separate dev team and tasked them with just writing free apps for the store (and potentially libraries for the community) to help push things a long a little.

It's never too late. Technology is still in its infancy. As far as I know there are still billions of people not living in the "digital age." Futhermore population is projected to grow another 33% the next 50 years. Too late? Hardly.

Well if you ask me, the day we think that the "Game is already decided", is the day innovation and creativity dies.
As said before apps would play a major role while attempting to penetrate. But, I still think that apart from the kind and the qty of apps a given platform has, it always comes down to the hardware and the ease of use the core OS provides. In the words of the great Steve Jobs "People who are serious about software should make their own hardware."
Having quoted that I think that if microsoft goes ahead and makes a super sturdy phone with premium appeal, then it would have actually made really good hardware to go along with their already praised software.
This is the 1st for microsoft and generally microsoft firsts are really strong.
Saying that it would actually be very hard to dominate the Apple n Android ecosystems for now. But, if the product delivered is actually just that good then it is Apple today, may be Android tomorrow and Microsoft in the future.

I have a lot of faith in MS whatever the naysayers keep saying. They do make mistakes, but they also come out with some of the best products. I still can't believe how useful Windows XP has been to billions of users since its launch in 2001. I still use it.
MS tablets and phones will be a huge hit, and a huge hit to Apple iOS as well

- Microsoft isn't structured for creativity. - From the CEO down, it doesn't have people with a zeal that they are making the best thing in the world. - While they can make some good products once in a while they are no match for aapl. Why don't they do something they can win at, instead of doing something they have lousy odds in?

Not everyone can afford Apple, and not everyone is so daring as to use Android. There are tons of people using feature phones, not smart phones because they can't afford one and are afraid of the other. MS can step in and suck them all up. as the previous comments have pointed out it's going to be about the apps. Put out enough fun, interesting, useful apps, free or at very low cost, and their hearts and minds will follow

I've been buying Windows phones for many years, and will do so many years to come, and my reason are threefold: 1. It is familiar. 2.It evolves. 3.Its not Apple or Android.

If the surface tablets actually run existing windows programs they might (might) be a huge hit. Especially if they come with the usual tablet goodies like GPS, navigation, 4G, and ease of operation. That being said, I think Android is a much better tablet/smartphone system than iOs but Apple still leads the pack; first commers have ahead start that's tough to overcome. MS is third out of the gate and the whole herd of smartphones and tablets is a very long way down the road. There might be shortcuts to head them off but I don't think the "metro" interface is one of them. So my gut feeling is that Microsoft is headed for tough times (remember IBM?)

I'm all into android right now. But I had been running windows mobile devices up until then. I would like to give the new phones a try, but they're not that widely available. And in my opinion Microsoft should consider or gear it's new windows 8 platform for tablets only.

LOL - This has about as much chance at success, as a re-launch of betamax videocassette-recorders would have.
Microsoft is the world biggest committee, and everything they touch comes out dumbed-down so far that it ends up being it's own worst enemy.
Familiarity was the *only* thing going for Microsoft, and they've tossed that out the window - LOL - Metro - that's "Windows, without Windows" - they've even made their own *name* irrelevant.
Go take a look around silicon valley - in the parks, libraries, hackerspaces, meetups, offices, etc - it's wall to wall Mac and iPhones (with the occasional Android or Blackberry). Microsoft is already gone.