Talking about the weather is a pastime as old as language, but climate researchers from the University of East Anglia (UEA) in the UK have just given people a whole lot more to talk about. As part of an ongoing effort to increase the accessibility and transparency of data on past climate and climate change, they've made one of the most widely used records of Earth's climate accessible through Google Earth.
Established in 1971, the UEA's Climate Research Unit (CRU) has become one of the leading institutions involved in the study of natural and anthropogenic climate change. Drawing on monthly weather records from some 6,000 weather stations around the globe, some dating back over 150 years, the researchers are responsible for Climatic Research Unit Temperature Version 4 (CRUTEM4), a widely used dataset of land-surface air temperatures.
By making CRUTEM4 data available through Google Earth, users can zoom in on any of the 6,000 weather stations, drill down through some 20,000 graphs and view monthly, seasonal and annual temperature data, some of which dates back to 1850. The interface places a red and green checkerboard over areas for where data is available. Since some remote areas lack weather stations, there are gaps in the checkerboard.
"The data itself comes from the latest CRUTEM4 figures, which have been freely available on our website and via the Met Office," said Dr Tim Osborn from the CRU. "But we wanted to make this key temperature dataset as interactive and user-friendly as possible. The beauty of using Google Earth is that you can instantly see where the weather stations are, zoom in on specific countries, and see station datasets much more clearly."
There are already a number of climate datasets available for Google Earth, including those from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Those wishing to view these and the CRUTEM4 dataset need only download Google Earth and open the KML format files. Due to the sheer volume of data, the CRU researchers expect there will be a few errors in their dataset and are encouraging users to alert them to any unusual figures.
Source: University of East Anglia
What does that mean? Who has been lying about what, such that they needed to insert that word?
I remember looking up a more than a century of data from a remote station years back, when I wanted to test "transparency" myself. Alarmingly, that data vanished a few years later (perhaps co-incidence, but I can say now that it was reporting some "uncomfortable" stats for a certain side of this debate...)
What we can say is that it has been calculated that the greenhouse effect that lies at the heart of the problem is pumping an excess of heat (above the natural cycle) equivalent to four and half Hiroshima sized devices into the atmosphere each and every second. That heat has to go somewhere and so it is not surprising that taking all domains, air, sea and land into consideration, temperatures are rising. The fact that air temperature rise has slowed in recent years is countered by a rise in sea temperatures, especially below 700 meters, exactly in line with what one would expect considering the sequence of La Niña events we have experienced (the last major El Niño was back in 1998).
For a better appreciation of the science of climate change, I use the skepticalscience.com website. Yes, it is 'for' anthropogenic climate change, i.e. it believes in it, but there again, so do 97% of the world's leading climate scientists, which give me confidence that they are correct.
However, we must not forget that it is a scientific issue and something might come up that shows that it is down to some as yet unknown phenomenon, such as the exotic flatulence of the Great Bugblatter Beast of Traal. That said, the debate over climate change is not the same as occurred over plate tectonics. In that debate the notion that the continents floated about on a sea of magma was treated as ludicrous by the leading geologists of the day. (It might even have been a higher percentage than the 97% of leading climatologists who believe in anthropogenic climate change.) We all know where that debate ended.
There is one major difference between the two positions. With plate tectonics we are dealing with geological issues and subsequently with geological timescales. We don't have that luxury with climate change. Even if it were due to the sun; say, (we know it isn't) and we know that we have no control over it, does not mean that we are not approaching a tipping point that will lead us to a runaway condition to much higher temperatures that our ancestors will have to live with, if they can. That tipping point concerns the melting of the methane clathrates. (Methane is a very potent greenhouse gas.) We are already measuring an increased rate of methane release and the danger is that that could soon become self-sustaining. We should also bear in mind that the rate of increase in temperatures is phenomenal compared to geological history and CO2 atmospheric content is higher than at any time during the last 25,000 years. Also, sea-levels today are about six meters lower than they were when CO2 was at the same level as it is today. In short we are in very unknown, and I believe dangerous, territory.
So, even if the increase in temperature we have experienced is due to some unknown cause, we do know, thanks to Fourier's notions and Tyndall's experiments that proved them correct, that if we pump CO2 into the atmosphere, it has the effect of increasing temperatures. It follows then that if we wish to combat the increasing temperatures, i.e. we want to protect the lives of our progeny, we need to reduce CO2 release into the atmosphere, period.
Perhaps an analogy might help. Imagine we are all on a cruise liner doing one of those sightseeing tours into the Arctic Circle. There is an iceberg dead ahead. We know that we did not put it there, nor did we create it in the first place. The questions is simple: Do we slow down and steer round it or carry on full speed ahead without altering course? At that level the answer is pretty simple. Unfortunately, we have the equivalent situation where there is a small group of passengers (possibly the owners looking to profit in some way from carrying on without change to course or speed) who are putting it about that the iceberg is all an illusion and is not going to do any harm. Not only that, they are spending vast amounts of money to promote their cause.
The question we all have to ask ourselves is this: Do we have the right to risk the well-being of future generations for the sake of the profits the fossil fuel industry has, is and will continue to make from business as usual? Even if we are convinced that it is all a scam, doesn't the increased frequency of extreme weather events - inline with climate model predictions - give us pause? Do we care what our children and grandchildren will think of us? I can hear them now: "They knew! They knew that they were risking our lives and yet did nothing! Damn them!" (Expletives deleted) I suspect we can all expect to be turning in our graves if temperatures rise to the levels currently being predicted.
I will not reply to any comments to the contrary. I am not a climate scientist and have only outlined here how I personally view the climate change debate. I can only repeat my recommendation that anyone who wishes to disagree goes to skepticalscience.com, where I am sure they will obtain an accurate account of the science of climate change and also see many of the myths regarding it debunked. It is a subject of such importance that we cannot afford to let dogma, no matter on which side, influence our thinking.
What he was doing was not extrapolating: he was merely revealing a propensity to edit. Just a single "suppressio veri" - a little inaccuracy- a lie; not a damned lie, and not a lot of statistical hogwash: of which there is an awful lot around.
Noticed how before 1950 almost 100% of the adjustments are colder and afterward almost 100% are warmer.
Yeah, I trust government.
The UK has also addressed the politicization of climate research through its courts. On Oct. 10, 2007 Justice Burton of the High Court, London, found that Al Gore’s global warming film “An Inconvenient Truth” contained 9 factual errors. He ruled that it constituted “political indoctrination” under Section 406 of the U.K. Education Act. This ruling meant the film could not be shown in British schools without teachers “offering a balanced presentation of opposing views.”
The planet's climate has changed repeatedly over the past 95 million years. e.g. as evidenced by tropical turtle and fern fossils in Canada's arctic, and mummified tree remains on arctic Ellesmere Island. The trees lived there in a cooling period 2 to 8 million years ago.
Similarly Canada is no longer under a mile-thick ice sheet, which melted 12,000 years before humans used petroleum. Global warming on Mars is also difficult to account for by a CO2 model.
Climate has changed markedly even in recorded history. Greenland’s Hvalsey Church still stands as stone ruins. It once served a farming community which thrived during the Medieval Warm Period a thousand years ago, but was frozen out by the ensuing Little Ice Age.
There is however one statistically astute group who are convinced climate risks are real, and can even provide probability tables for those risks: insurance actuaries in global reinsurance corporations.