Biology

UN Predicts peak human population, as fertility rates plummet

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The global population is predicted to peak in the coming decades, as fertility rates plummet worldwide
The global population is predicted to peak in the coming decades, as fertility rates plummet worldwide
Crude birth rate by continent
United Nations Population Division
Fertility rates over time
United Nations Population Division
Total world population, historic and projected
United Nations Population Division
The global population pyramid, historically from 1950 and projected as far as 2100
United Nations Population Division
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At the time of writing, there were an estimated 8,123,518,311 living humans on Earth – roughly the most there has ever been. But as fertility and birth rates continue to freefall, the numerical peak of humanity is quickly approaching.

We've crunched some numbers from the UN Population Division's World Population Prospects 2024 report – which looks at historical population estimates and provides a range of forward projections based on currently available information.

As you can see by the image below, birth rates across all major continents have been dropping sharply since the 1960s.

Crude birth rate by continent
United Nations Population Division

Researchers point to the following as contributing factors:

  • Access to contraceptives and abortions
  • Higher levels of female education
  • Changing social structures and religious beliefs
  • Economic prosperity and increased lifestyle choices
  • Urbanization
  • High cost of raising children

Either way, fertility rates have already fallen well below replacement levels in many affluent nations, including the USA, UK, Germany, China and India – here charted alongside the countries with the highest (Niger, 6.06 live births per woman) and lowest (South Korea, 0.72 live births per woman) current birth rates on file. Africa as a continent, incidentally, dominates the global birth rate and fertility charts.

Fertility rates over time
United Nations Population Division

So what do the coming decades look like? Well, on the global scale, the UN estimates that Earth's current population of 8.1 billion will continue to rise for several more decades, rolling off to a peak population of approximately 10.29 billion people around the year 2084.

Total world population, historic and projected
United Nations Population Division

The population, as a whole, is going to look a lot older as a result; we used to call the kind of diagram below a "population pyramid," and that was certainly accurate up until around 1990. Moving toward the year 2100, it starts looking a lot more like a population bolus.

The global population pyramid, historically from 1950 and projected as far as 2100
United Nations Population Division

It's hard to know how accurate these predictions might be, given that we're living in an age of massive technological change on so many fronts. Medical science and anti-aging technology promise to extend both the lifespan and health span of (affluent) human life. There are many who believe the first thousand-year-old human has already been born, and that as a species we may well outpace death itself in the coming decades.

AI, humanoids and other intelligent robotics projects promise nigh-on unlimited cheap labor, along with superhuman intelligence and self-optimizing systems; the economy, according to folk like Elon Musk, can continue to grow even as the population and the labor force shrink. Smart robots will tend to the old and infirm when there are not enough youngsters around to do the job, and the rest of us can lead lives of leisure.

That might mean more babies; on the other hand, we'll soon be able to have sex with those intelligent robots, too, and they promise to be the most persuasive, attentive, responsive and agreeable partners mankind has ever seen, with zero chance of pregnancy.

All these technological fronts and many others are advancing at rapidly accelerating rates, so future predictions have probably never been less reliable than they are today. But it's certainly interesting to step back and see the size and spread of our species from a global perspective.

Source: United Nations

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6 comments
veryken
Missing the "core purpose" or "supreme justification."

Because, on the one hand, we have astounding science and progress on extending human longevity (see the other recent New Atlas articles). But on the other, as ridiculous competition or contradiction, we have this astounding scientific study on the progress of human population overgrowth.

So the question is, "why?" What's the supreme purpose for humans?
Nelson
Peaking at ten billion is meaningless if the environment collapses at nine.
anthony88
Veryken poses an interesting question. I believe the supreme purpose for humans is to do as Morrissey begs: to live, to love, to catch something that one might be ashamed of.
Can we not be satisfied with just being happy in our own skin? Why is a supreme purpose necessary? Are we going to criticise humans striving to achieve simple happiness through a Zen lifestyle, which is somewhat harder but infinitely more fulfilling than getting up in the morning and going to work to fulfil a company goal that a robot can achieve? My supreme purpose will not be imposed on me; it will be the purpose I make for myself. If I have a UBI and choose to just live within what that can afford me, then so be it. If I choose to spend my time volunteering, mentoring, caring - great - but I don't want to be judged if I decide to live in a hut on a beach and not hurt anyone in the process.
Just like a George Michael t-shirt: Choose Life.
guzmanchinky
The happiest people I know are childless and live in a van. The old "dream" of a career and family are dead.
Daishi
Population will peak but it will also drastically transform in the process. Replacement rate is 2.1 births per woman, S Korea is 0.8, China is 1.16, Sweden and US are 1.6 each. Niger is 6.6 with Africa in general still being about 4.5. Africa is still more points above replacement rate than other countries are below it. Yes fertility is slowing a bit in Africa but it's still an assumption it will ever drop to or below replacement rate. I know tons of people from Africa and culturally most are still family oriented. I don't think that will change for at least a generation or more (if ever). Population decline could just be temporary until Africa makes up a larger % over the overall number and it could go up again. Nobody seems to consider this as possible and I don't know why.
rgooding
Just going out on a tangent here but... Can you imagine if old rich folks could pay for immortality through medicine what the world would look like?? - you'd have an ultra rich class that consisted of those over 100 who never had to retire or pass their wealth on, could keep getting richer a la "shady accounting" and eventually control all the world's economy through sheer longevity whilst never paying taxes their whole lives! - does the word parasite come to mind?

Honestly not sure if the world can hold on till 2080 for the imbalance to right itself? - maybe we'll just get unlucky and have a major war to thin out the herd before then?

Maybe WW3 or the 2nd coming IS a blessing for the earth?

Either way, I'd like a robot to clean up for me in 20 years.