Earth set to bake in hottest period on record within 5 years, study warns

Earth set to bake in hottest period on record within 5 years, study warns
The World Meteorological Organization has released its latest climate predictions report, and the news is not great
The World Meteorological Organization has released its latest climate predictions report, and the news is not great
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The World Meteorological Organization has released its latest climate predictions report, and the news is not great
The World Meteorological Organization has released its latest climate predictions report, and the news is not great

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has released its climate predictions report for the next five years; frankly, the news is dire.

The WMO issues its Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update each year. The report aims to inform policy-makers by providing climate predictions for the upcoming years, in this case, 2023 to 2027.

“This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5 °C [2.7 °F] level specified in the Paris Agreement which refers to the long-term warming over many years,” said Petteri Taalas, the WMO’s Secretary-General. “However, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5 °C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency.”

The WMO’s warning accompanies its prediction that there’s a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years will exceed the warmest on record. El Niño and climate change will likely drive this temperature spike.

“A warming El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory,” said Taalas. “This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared.”

An El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become substantially warmer than average, causing a shift in atmospheric circulation. More heat in the atmosphere and warmer ocean surface temperatures can lead to increased wind speeds in tropical storms and strongly affect marine life off the Pacific coast.

In addition, the WMO has predicted that Arctic heating is likely to be three times higher than the global average. This is of concern to experts.

“For most of Earth’s history, the planet has been without polar ice caps,” said Chris Mays, a lecturer in paleontology at University College Cork, Ireland. “But the transitions from an icy world (like today) [to] an ice-free world is usually much slower. We’re heading towards an ice-free globe, but the rate at which things are changing is reminiscent of the most extreme and most devastating warming events in Earth’s past.”

In terms of rainfall, the WMO’s predictions suggest that there will be increased rainfall in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, with reduced rainfall expected over the Amazon and parts of Australia.

In 2015, our chance of exceeding 1.5 °C was zero; it has increased steadily since then. Between 2017 and 2021, there was a 10% chance we’d exceed the level set by the Paris Agreement. According to the WMO’s latest predictions, the chance of global near-surface temperature exceeding 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels for at least one year between now and 2027 is 66% or more likely than not.

The WMO’s predictions have, understandably, created concern amongst experts.

“Projections for the warmest year on record in the next five years spells further trouble for the health of people around the world,” said Belle Workman, a research fellow at Melbourne Climate Futures, The University of Melbourne. “We know that climate change negatively impacts health in a variety of ways, including through the direct physical effects of heatwaves, such as heat stroke, and indirect effects of rising temperatures, such as contributing to food and water insecurity.”

Some have stressed the reliability of the science underlying these predictions.

“The data used to cover the entire globe using a combination of surface and satellite-based measurements, and are thoroughly quality controlled by meteorological agencies and scientific researchers around the world,” said Janette Lindesay from the Fenner School of Environment and Society at the Australian National University. “Climate system modeling by 11 different institutions has been used to produce forecasts for the period 2023 to 2027, providing a high degree of confidence in the projections because they are replicated across different research groups.”

The WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update is available here as a PDF.

Source: World Meteorological Organization via Scimex

"On record?" Over Earth's billions of years how long do we have recorded temperatures? And how accurate were records 100 years ago, even?
Not even the hottest in the last 2300 years.
The Medieval Warm Period was warmer. Globally.
Claims that we are transitioning to an "ice-free globe" without polar ice caps ignore the paleoclimate evidence from ice cores and other proxies that Earth has oscillated between glacial and interglacial periods several times over the last million years. We are at or approaching the peak warm period of the current interglacial, but sea levels were up to 6 meters higher during the last one, 125,000 years ago. Look up the plots from EPICA and Vostok Station ice cores and studies by NASA GISS. The main difference now is atmospheric CO2 about 50% higher but it takes a doubling (100%) of CO2 to raise temperature 1 °C according to physics. Is that enough to slow or prevent the next glacial cycle so Earth no longer has polar ice caps? No one knows, but we do know that a warm interglacial is vastly more hospitable than a glacial period.
And all because we still have an incredibly vocal minority that refuses to believe science.
As a teenager in the 70's, I remember all of the stories about how we were headed for "a new ice age".
Then, in the 90's it was MAN made global warming that would kill us all by the end of the century.
When that didn't work, they changed it to climate change. Now they call it climate emergency.
If you look at the sunspot data, and overlay it with global temperatures, you will see for the most part
they overlap. As the output from the sun increases, the solar wind hits the magnetic bubble around our
planet, which changes weather patterns. Funny...some "tiny" little star 93 million miles away, causes changes
in the weather, right here on earth.
Shoot, one burp from a volcano, releases more "greenhouse gas" that all of the SUV's and private jets combined!
And speaking of greenhouse gas, if they keep up with this "reduction in Co2", what are plants suppose to use?
They absorb C02 and release OXYGEN, which is vital for most creatures on planet earth.
Wow, never thought I'd live long enough to hear common sense and true scientific data regarding the climate scam on NA in the comment section. I can almost hear the heads exploding, wait, less humans good, right? Keep telling the truth.
I did not expect the comment section to be like this on NewAtlas.. Don't y'all even read this site? Or xkcd? Look up "Earth Temperature Timeline"

I don't even know how to respond to justifications like "we need CO2 to make oxygen." Or "its better to stave off the next glacial cycle."
Nelson Hyde Chick
We have forsaken future generations by having too many of them. If only in the sixties we had headed the advice of people like the Ehrlichs, Rachel Carson, Club of Rome and Norman Borlaug were all warning us about the dangers of overpopulation, and that was when there were only three billion of us; if only we were currently approaching four billion instead of eight, climate change would be distant blip on our radar, the Gulf Spill, fracking and the development of Canada’s tar sands would not have happened because we would not be that hard up for oil yet, and the word Anthropocene would not have been coined to label mankind driving all other life to extinction.
I literally gave up trying to make a difference in the imminent climate catastrophe about five years ago. No one listens or cares. I just hope the naysayers don’t stand in the way of geo-engineering too, which is pretty much our only hope at this point. Given the conspiracy theories I’m reading regarding Bill Gates’ work on the technology I’m not that optimistic. Melt enough permafrost and/or the albedo of global snow cover and the cooling needed to halt it will block enough solar radiation to cause its own food shortages. Perhaps a heatwave killing thousands will save us from what will surely kill millions soon enough.
Given that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation has already entered its negative phase I find that highly unlikely.
It will be remembered that when it swapped from negative to positive around 1980 the climate scientists segued from proclaiming that we were going to suffer from an Ice age due to human produced particulates to heat death due to anthropogenic Global Warming, renamed Climate Change due to the "Pause" in the late 1990s.

Here is an interesting peer-reviewed paper from that period:

"We report here on the first results of a calculation in which separate estimates were made of the effects on global temperature of large increases in the amount of CO2 and dust in the atmosphere. It is found that even an increase by a factor of 8 in the amount of CO2, which is highly unlikely in the next several thousand years, will produce an increase in the surface temperature of less than 2 deg. K.

However, the effect on surface temperature of an increase in the aerosol content of the atmosphere is found to be quite significant. An increase by a factor of 4 in the equilibrium dust concentration in the global atmosphere, which cannot be ruled out as a possibility within the next century, could decrease the mean surface temperature by as much as 3.5 deg. K. If sustained over a period of several years, such a temperature decrease could be sufficient to trigger an ice age!"

Schneider S. & Rasool S., "Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols - Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate", Science, vol.173, 9 July 1971, p.138-141
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