In what may not come as much of a shock to many, the Doomsday Clock has inched closer to midnight and is now 89 seconds away from the ominous hour. It's the closest the two hands have ever been to the symbolic 12 on the clock face in its 80 years.
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists team revealed the new time in a streamed event, which also featured diverse commentary on how they came to this decision. And while we'd like to sugarcoat it – as do the researchers, who usually pepper the bad news with the good – there aren't a whole lot of positives to take away. Sorry.
Avian influenza, biological warfare potential, the rise of the private sector in space travel and communications, and generative AI were some of the key factors that shifted the hands of the clock a second closer to midnight. In 2024, it was 90 seconds away.
The team also noted that, besides wars and nuclear threats, the escalation of wealth inequality, societal division along political lines and the spread of misinformation and disinformation has us teetering ever-closer to a point of no return.
"We're moving into an environment where reason and reality are replaced by rage and fantasy," said Herb Lim, a member of the Bulletin's Science and Security Board.
"The dangers we have just listed are greatly exacerbated by a potent threat multiplier: the spread of misinformation, disinformation, and conspiracy theories that degrade the communication ecosystem and increasingly blur the line between truth and falsehood," the board wrote. "Advances in AI are making it easier to spread false or inauthentic information across the internet – and harder to detect it. At the same time, nations are engaging in cross-border efforts to use disinformation and other forms of propaganda to subvert elections, while some technology, media, and political leaders aid the spread of lies and conspiracy theories.
"This corruption of the information ecosystem undermines the public discourse and honest debate upon which democracy depends," they added. "The battered information landscape is also producing leaders who discount science and endeavor to suppress free speech and human rights, compromising the fact-based public discussions that are required to combat the enormous threats facing the world."
While the threat of nuclear war has been a constant for the Doomsday Clock since its inception in 1945, this year the team cited the breakdown of arms treaties and international collaboration. Rather than working towards a nuclear-weapon-free world, the threat of catastrophic conflict is considered greater than at any stage since the Cold War.
"The countries that possess nuclear weapons are increasing the size and role of their arsenals, investing hundreds of billions of dollars in weapons that can destroy civilization," they noted. "The nuclear arms control process is collapsing, and high-level contacts among nuclear powers are totally inadequate given the danger at hand. Alarmingly, it is no longer unusual for countries without nuclear weapons to consider developing arsenals of their own – actions that would undermine longstanding nonproliferation efforts and increase the ways in which nuclear war could start."
A constant factor in the Doomsday Clock time over the past decade has been the climate crisis, and while there has been great investment in and implementation of renewable energy technology, it's nowhere near enough. Adding to this are the ongoing challenges of cross-boarder collaboration.
"The long-term prognosis for the world’s attempts to deal with climate change remains poor, as most governments fail to enact the financing and policy initiatives necessary to halt global warming," the board said. "Growth in solar and wind energy has been impressive but remains insufficient to stabilize the climate. Judging from recent electoral campaigns, climate change is viewed as a low priority in the United States and many other countries."
In little over a week, the new US administration has signed off on multiple executive orders that experts stress are expected to exacerbate environmental destruction and contribute further to the warming of the planet.
The board singles out several countries – the US, China and Russia – as having the power to collectively "destroy civilization" yet also possessing the ability to turn down the heat on many of these global concerns if they could set national pursuits aside and work together. Of course it doesn't take a scientist to see this is not very likely.
"Our fervent hope is that leaders will recognize the world’s existential predicament and take bold action to reduce the threats posed by nuclear weapons, climate change, and the potential misuse of biological science and a variety of emerging technologies," the team noted.
As for the good news? Well, we still have 89 seconds …
