Whether you're a John Carpenter fan or a biology enthusiast, you shouldn't need much convincing to know that the melting of subterranean permafrost at the poles is not a good thing. Last year, scientists gave us one more thing to lose sleep over, reviving a 48,500-year-old 'zombie virus' unearthed from Arctic permafrost – and it was not the first time. It's one more sting in the tail of climate change – the threat of ancient diseases that have lain frozen and dormant for millennia.
Now, new research has detailed the rate at which Siberia's massive Batagaika crater is devouring the surface of the Earth, expanding at a rate of 35 million cubic feet each year. Currently, it measures around 1 km (0.6 mi) long and 800 m (0.5 mi) across at its widest point. And it's speeding up.
Batagaika crater, located in the Chersky Range in northeastern Siberia, is not actually a crater but a thermokarst depression – a kind of sinkhole or 'mega-slump' driven by the collapse and fracturing of land due to permafrost loss. It was only discovered in 1991, after this underground opening split further and took with it a large section of hillside. In the video below, you can see its growth from discovery to 2007.
Permafrost, despite its name, is not actually permanent; it's essentially ground that's remained at 32°F (0°C) or colder for more than two years. A quarter of the Northern Hemisphere's land surface is made up of this rock-hard frozen dirt that can vary between a a few feet deep to almost a mile.
So why is Batagaika – which is in a fairly remote area of Siberia – causing such alarm? Its rapid expansion is now fueled by warming air temperatures, which has set off a positive feedback loop that's unlikely to slow down as long as there's ice to thaw.
When the permafrost layer degrades, or melts, it goes from concrete consistency to a muddy mass, which is unable to support the vegetation on the surface. As the edges of the expanse collapse into it, the ground loses the canopies of trees shielding it from the sun (and heat). At this point, newly-exposed organic matter, no longer preserved in ice, breaks down and releases carbon into the atmosphere to further fuel atmospheric warming. This, of course, results in increasingly more permafrost loss.
As for the ancient bugs, we don't know whether they're equipped to survive for long when exposed to the Earth's atmosphere – but nor do we know if our modern biology and medicine is equipped to deal with novel viruses returning from 50,000 years of dormancy. In 2016, it's believed a permafrost thaw released the anthrax-causing Bacillus anthracis, which killed 2,649 reindeer, and resulted in dozens of sick locals and the death of one child.
The dramatic Batagaika crater formation – which has earned it the nicknames of 'gateway to the underworld' and 'gateway to Hell' – has steep cliff-like edges revealing permafrost estimated to have been frozen for 650,000 years. It's currently around 50 m (164 ft) deep, with areas dropping down 100 meters (328 feet).
And the good news? Well, it has become somewhat of a tourist attraction...
The study was published in the journal Geomorphology.
I have a hard time being worried about the land damage in such a remote area, especially since it offers up a real life lab for scientists to study the geology and layers without having to do their own excavating or digging, or the plants which will just grow back. Our man-made mines probably remove way more dirt each year than this thing. Shoot, the Colorado River used to naturally erode some 50-100 million tons of sediment each year (before our dams slowed that down...a little bit). At some point this will slow down, just the question of who know's when? The sediment deposited downstream will create some interesting changes to that would be fascinating to keep an eye on.
As for the lack of permafrost, I can't help but think of how the most biologically productive periods in earth's history were when there were NO ice caps at all. Turns out, life of all kinds likes it warmer than colder. A little blip of a few degrees colder for half a century kills off half of Europe over the next century, but we're afraid of things being warmer? Meh. Kinda can't wait for the 4-corners area of the US to be able to sustain big populations again, like it did during the Anasazi period 800-1200 AD (the climate supported 4 times as many people in the Cortez, CO area than live there NOW, even with all our modern amenities and luxuries and utilities)
Absolutely. The Gaia hypothesis is that Earth is indeed self-regulating (check out Lovelock and Margulis) BUT...:
a) it doesn't care about humanoid forms of life (if there had been no meteorite / volcanic eruption / whatever happened 65 million years ago, dinosaurs or other forms of life would be dominating the planet now... we (humans) are just the result of an "accident" that took on quite well...
b) if it actually regulates itself (Gaia hypothesis), as Techutante says, maybe it will do so within several thousands (or tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands) of years from now...
WE KNOW WHAT WE HAVE NOW. It is unrealistic to put so much hope that the outcome of climate change could be nice to us humans, knowing that we know so little of earth-scale bifurcation points (check out René Thom's catastrophe theory)...
If there is only one domain in which we (humans) should try to be as conservative as possible, it is in conserving what we have now climate-wise, that allowed humanity to thrive for the past 100 000 years. I'm not that particularly interested in discovering what Gaia has in store for our children for the next 100 000 years...
Remember that hope was the last (= the worst) of the plagues in Pandora's box, which was wisely closed before it escaped it... until the Christian religion unleashed it 2000 years ago to rise above other faiths, by inventing the (unknown before) notion of an afterlife paradise...